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Got this problem in Max Dama hand out. Could not figure out a solution.
"Roll a die repeatedly. Say that you stop when the sum goes above 63. What is the probability that the second to last value was X. Make a market on this probability. Ie what is your 90 percent confidence interval."
"Roll a die repeatedly. Say that you stop when the sum goes above 63. What is the probability that the second to last value was X. Make a market on this probability. Ie what is your 90 percent confidence interval."